New Tipping Source

Trainglot · Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:49 am Post subject:

Today's Selections

Bath 200 Antinori
Bath 400 Ainia

10 Pts EW Double W2W P2P
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:12 am Post subject:

Knew it would be those two before you posted...I like the first one a lot...not checked out the second one properly yet
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:23 pm Post subject:

First one given a stinking ride even analysed at length on at the races and should have won....
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:03 pm Post subject:

Well both placed for a nice profit

Best bet of the day is in the 7.20 Kempton

Mvuto ew...7/2 Will Hill

Get on!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject:

Well I hope you were all on...and especially at Will Hill

Horse won...was then demoted

Good job Hills first past post...chicken dinner
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:31 am Post subject:

Nice Job Chaser
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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Trainglot · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:37 am Post subject:

Well my trial is now over but I think with Chaser's help we could probably continue this thread as the good EW shots are pretty easy to find - I will continue to post my own thoughts on thieving EW doubles and we'll see how we get on. Also if Chaser continues with his thieving EW singles then this should be an interesting and profitable thread.

I will post my thoughts on today's racing shortly but nothing jumps out at the moment.

I also have my own "thieving" SFC system that I will share with you but selections are rare this time of year (works better with quality racing) but if one comes along I will let you know and explain the system.
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:18 am Post subject:

Theres a very good race today 3.35 at Brighton

Problem is there are 2 candidates in Block Party and Takeover Bid....I may back them both but for now I just favour Takeover Bid with a small saver on Block Party

Takeover Bid 3.35 Bri ew Get On!!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:40 am Post subject:

I have found a RFC bet today at Brighton.

The CSF formula that calculates the returns takes into account starting prioes but NOT the fact that horses may be closely matched on direct form and should therefore finish close to each other. In the 440 Brighton we have 2 horses who finished 1st and 2nd over Course and Distance last time out and drew clear from the rest. If one of them wins the race at say 5-1 the other one has a very good chance of finishing 2nd at say 8-1, far more chance than any other 8-1 shot in the race, yet the payout will be the same.

As the better class of horses are more consistent, this works better with Group Ones.

Look at these results from 2004 -

12 May 2004 - The Dante
1. North Light 6-1
2. Rule of Law 8-1
3. Let the Lion Roar 3-1

5 June 2004 - The Derby
1. North Light 7-2
2. Rule of Law 20-1
3. Let the Lion Roar 14-1

CSF 82.97 (Yes I was On)
Trifecta 698.50 (No I was not on)

This happens regularly (1st 2 not 1st 3 !!)

So today I will be putting on a RFC on the following
440 Brtn - Kannon & Croeso Cusan
It is a RFC because the 2nd is weighted to reverse the form though I am constantly surprised how often horses actually finish in the same order despite the weights.
Another plus, or rather not a negative, is that these horses are drawn closely together too.

Obviously the win percentage of this system is low but this is defo a long term profitable strategy that only needs small stakes.

The CSF should pay approx 40-1 and the true odds I believe are about a third of this.
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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Trainglot · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:43 am Post subject:

I forgot to mention -

1. Kauto Star
2. Exotic Dancer

has paid for quite a few racing days out !!
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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gnashers · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:28 am Post subject:

the true odds are no way anywhere near a third of 40/1 but i can see your logic

ps the welsh horse is a non runner.

The Chaser · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:55 pm Post subject:

I like a race at Great Leighs later too

Majuba 7.20

The horse is a bit of a monkey but WILL place and has a good chance of winning

Im gonna do a small ew double and of course the singles

Takeover Bid 3.35 bri

majuba 7.20 Great leighs

Get on!!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject:

Well that horse clearly wasnt off today and didnt try an inch even if it didnt like the ground...I have gone for the full recovery mission on Majuba 7.20 great Leighs...ew steal Get On!!...and try and get your money back lol Embarassed

Missed one at Ludlow today too that won at 5/2 ...wouldnt trust a first time up novice hurdler...it was an uncompetitive affair and I should have played really...good luck to all fish who play this
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject:

This was the day when it all went wrong as my second pick slipped and missed the break...a blank and frankly horrible day ...those pesky bookies have to beat you sometimes I suppose and I cant complain this year as I have had a very good time particularly of late...only lent and we will recover it with interest very soon....
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:56 am Post subject:

A bit of an obvious RFC but if the handicapper has under-estimated one of them, he has under-estimated them both - they should finish very close toi each other and I am hoping that will be slightly ahead of everything else
255 Don Hunterview & Kudu Country RFC
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject:

Nowt from me today...still wounded from yesterday
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good