New Tipping Source

The Chaser · Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject:

There should be one

Piazza san pietro 4.55 goodwood....e/w steal
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject:

That is assuming all 8 run which at present they do...get on!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

psychodave · Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject:

JonThomson · Royal Flush Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Posts: 3247 Location: FTP

top bets today:

giants -7.5
eagles -4.5

both -110 ldo. had stronger bets on the raiders and jets but they've since moved past key numbers so can't recommend now
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Jon Thomson
Pushing trash and rivering donkeys since 1982

"Expected Value is the term bad poker players use whenever they lose a big hand. The term comes from economics, and therefore it only exists in theory."

Trainglot · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:45 am Post subject:

So far 2 bets 1 winner (3 placed horses out of 4)
Invested 40 Pts
Returns 30.6 Pts

Today's selections -

Kem 340 Poyle Meg
Wind 500 Lease of Life

10 Pts EW Double W2W P2P
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:25 am Post subject:

Piazza san pietro 4.55 goodwood

Was given an absolutely shocking ride and still took it up with 100 yards to run but got run out of it beaten less than a neck...cert to place though and thats the key...never leave the win AND place money behind
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

psychodave · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:27 pm Post subject:

what the difference between EW and win to win and place to place please ?
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"The motto of chivalry is also the motto of wisdom; to serve all, but love only one. " IN HOC SIGNO VINCES "

The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject:

Lease of life 5.0 windsor fits the bill as a fair ew steal...not cast iron though medium bet ew

Chambers 3.0 windsor also has a similar profile medium bet ew

kempto 3.40 poyle meg and fen spirit both look to have a chance of turning the fav over but they dont look certs to place so very small stakes only back em both ew

All in all a day to relax sit back and take it easy...dont get over involved as there are no certs to place but you could have the odd ew steal to small stakes
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject:

Hi Dave -

EW multiples can be calculated 2 ways - "Equally Divided" or "Win to Win Place to Place". The former used to be the norm unless you asked for the latter. The latter is now widely accepted as the norm.

With "equally divided" any winnings from the 1st selection was equally divided between win and place bets on the next selection.
EG 10 EW Double on a 6-1 winner at 1/4 the odds
70 back from the win 25 back from the place = 95 so the bet on the 2nd selection would be 47.50 EW.

With "Win to Win Place to Place" you are placing 2 separate multiples - a win multiple on all your selections and a place multiple.
In example above you would get 70 win on at win odds on your 2nd selection and 25 place on at place odds.

Hope this helps !!
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject:

funnily enough in backward barrow I believe a lot of the bookies assume you want equally divided each way bets

the difference is:

If you have a 4/1 winner on a£10 ew bet it usually is settled as £50 running on the second horse to win and £18 on the place (assuming 1/5 odds a place)

If you equally divide your stake (also called ew all ew) then you cumutively add the win and place and divide it equally onto the second of your horses...eg £50 + £18 = £68 divided which gives you £34 ew on your second pick

win to win place to place be settled as follows

£10ew double 3/1 and 4/1

both win £228.80

one win one place £28.80

both place £28.80

equally divided would be settled as follows

both win £190.40

one win 3/1 one place 4/1 £50.40

one win 4/1 one place 3/1 £54.40

both place £14.40

Personally I would never recommend equally divided ew betting on horses less than 10/1
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

psychodave · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject:

cheers guys thank you very in depth and informative.. Cool

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"The motto of chivalry is also the motto of wisdom; to serve all, but love only one. " IN HOC SIGNO VINCES "

The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject:

Chambers came 4th having swerved across the track...thats why it was a tough day today...best one is lease of life in the 5.0...get on!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject:

lease of life won by 10 lengths hard held...get on!!...5/2 chicken dinner!!
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

psychodave · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject:

Did you all clean up ?? Very Happy

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"The motto of chivalry is also the motto of wisdom; to serve all, but love only one. " IN HOC SIGNO VINCES "

Doublebubble · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject:

roscopiko · One Pair Joined: 13 May 2008 Posts: 76 Location: NPF

The Chaser · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:44 pm Post subject:

The only true ew steal was lease of life as it looked nailed to place...1.3 on betfair...it duly obliged...if only there were 1 of those a day
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:58 am Post subject:

I think you need at least 2 a day to benefit from the ability to put a place double on.
EG SINGLE ONLY - Real odds 1.3 but getting 1.5 is fine but the win odds from the compulsory win bet may or may not be value and cancel out the value of the Place bet.

However with 2 selections as above example the place double pays 1*1.5*1.5 = 2.25 against real odds of less than 1.7 - this will defo make up for any loss of value of the compulsory win double.

Results of the new tipping source so far -
3 Bets - 2 Winners - 5 placed horses out of 6
Invested - 60 pts
Returns - 59.1 pts at SP
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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The Chaser · Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:25 am Post subject:

The problem is you are stretching and pushing your luck to hope for two a day...there could be 3 somedays and none on others...the key is NOT to lose your place part
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Flair for show nutz for dough...better to be lucky than good

Trainglot · Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:44 am Post subject:

Today's selections -
440 Leicester - Moresco
450 Newcastle - Mister Pete
10 Pts EW Double W2W P2P

I notice he hasn't gone for one in the 3:50 which is the obvious stealing EW race - My guess is that they are so poor quality behind the odds on fav that any of them could get a place.
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Quitters never Win and Winners never Quit
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